How can you know if it's a bear market? It's tough. Professionals are terrible forecasting a bear market. The media worse! If folks are predicting a bear market, know you should own stocks. Corrections are different.. stocks drop suddenly and fast and are designed to scare the pants off you. Corrections happen during a year. Don't be fooled. Real bear markets start slow and calm. Stocks drop a little month-to-month but nothing dramatic. Don't get suckered into unloading your positions because of a small quick correction.
Have interest in buying more SBUX.
Big news regarding Apple. Dow Jones Industrial Average replaces ATT with Apple effective March 18.
The AAPL march continues.................
As stated earlier, my Iron-Man portfolio will be more aggressive and speculative using profits on buying new stocks and equities. Today I purchased shares in AVGO. AVGO, a chipmaker, announced an dividend effective with anyone holding the Mar on Mar 20th for payment Mar 31.
The amateurs and market weaklings are thinking the market is 'too high' and backing off their longs. The adult smart money continues however to come into the market.
Bought 70 shares UA today.
Mark Cuban continues to think Netflix will be bought out. I continue to hold my best performer in the Iron-Man/MockingJay portfolio (see below).
Apple sold more smart phones than everyone last quarter. Morgan Stanley up'd their target price on AAPL from 130 to 160. All of them getting close to Carl Icahn's 216 target. Only a few more days before AAPL provides details of the Apple Watch.
Starbucks. Pipper Jefferies up's target to 108. SBUX at 94 and gunning for the 100th mark.
I'm gonna get UA and BA into Iron-Man soon.
Feb 28-Mar 2
My YTD report on the 2015 recommendations.
After two full months, let's take a look at how my 2015 recommendations have performed. These recommendations were made Jan 1 and Jan 2 of 2015.
1. The almighty DOLLAR. Using etf index UUP as the measure, the dollar is up 5.23% since the beginning of the year.
2. CERNER. I noted on Jan 2 that you can be certain with CERN. CERN is up 11.44% YTD.
3. Airline Stocks. There are transportation indexes but not an airline index. Some airlines have done well, some not. Result is mixed.
4. Netflix (NFLX). I bought and recommended buying NFLX on Jan 2, the first trading day of the year. It has been my best recommendation so far. NFLX is up a whopping 39.02% since the beginning of the year !
5. Apple (AAPL). I bought and recommended buying AAPL on Jan 2, the first trading day of the year. AAPL is up 16.36% since the beginning of the year !
6. Disney (DIS). I said on Jan 2 that ' DIS, the top media company on earth owns a number of golden nuggets". DIS stock is up 10.5% YTD.
7. Starbucks (SBUX). I said "What can you say about a CEO that smells not only money in coffee beans but takes the top margins of his products. No price is too high for starbuck products." SBUX is up 13.94% YTD.
8. REITs. I said "
Buying a REIT is like buying real estate without the hassles and cost. If you think real estate is a good buy, buy a REIT". Using SCHH as a gauge, it is 3.13% YTD.
9. Biotech stocks. Using the top four Biotech ETF's, the range is 10.94% up to 22.5% up for the year. Biotech has done very well.
10. Short Oil. I said short Oil until someone blinks. The USA blinked. I said to use DTO and SCO as a gauge. Although Oil has bump up from it's lows, the two etf's I noted are still up for the year. DTO is up 21.5% for the year, SCO is up .051% for the year.
As you can see, the facts show everyone of our recommendations at this point is a winner. That said, it's time to make some changes. I am no longer advocating shorting oil as the USA has blinked. Oil still could go down but I am no longer willing to risk.
I am also no longer recommending buying the Dollar. It should continue to get stronger as the FED is likely to raise rates but it's time to move on to other plays. I am no longer recommending REITs although pending housing starts are the highest it's been in 18 months. Again time to move on. Airline stocks likely have hit a wall. I am no longer recommending Airline stocks although several of the airlines could likely continue to climb.
I do continue to like AAPL(apple), NFLX (Netflix), CERN (Cerner), SBUX (Starbucks), DIS (Disney), Biotechs
In the coming days, I will be adding new recommendations. Also the MOCKINGJAY portfolio started on Jan 1 is being changed. Last year the Catching Fire portfolio was based for the most part on Growth and Momentum. Mockingjay is mostly based on Trends and Special Situations. I will combine both concepts together and add additional risk and speculations to enhance growth. With the profits made, I am willing to take on more risk for hopefully better reward. MockingJay will soon morph into the IRON MAN portfolio - where only winners need apply - where only the strong survive. The same portfolio but new added stocks might be more speculative.
Last day of the trading month and I promised my old site an update of my MockingJay portfolio would be provided on their site. However, after attempting to go to the site, it appears to have gone defunct. I will provide an YTD update on here this weekend.
MockingJay: Only winners need apply. Time to knock off more weaklings from the portfolio, gone are AON and BA. Portfolio continues to show a profit over $8,000 YTD !
Feb 25 - Load of losers yet a winning portfolio
If one at first glance takes a look below at the MockingJay portfolio, one will see a large number of losing picks, in fact all closed picks except one is a loser.... yet the portfolio is up over $8,000 YTD which averages over $1,000 per week gain for the year!
How can that be?
At the onset, I indicated that I was all about Portfolio Management and not individual stock picks. I am not in a popularity contest or game to see how many stock picks come out right. I am however interested in overall PROFIT. Managing the overall portfolio is more important than game playing with seeing how many stock picks one gets right. I want my money in stocks which will improve the overall portfolio and couldn't care less about 'hoping' a losing stock goes back to even to satisfy an ego.
Last year, my Catching Fire portfolio did over 35% net gain for the year. That public portfolio was based primarily on growth and momentum. I indicated that this year, my current public available for viewing portfolio, is more about following Trends and Special situations. I started this portfolio at the beginning of the year and named it MockingJay.
I want the portfolio loaded with winners... weeding out the losers. This is FOLLOWING THE MONEY !
ONE NEEDS TO BE ON THE LAKE WHEN THE FISH ARE FEEDING !
The best traders are usually only 60% right, just make the winners big ones. When fishing, does one 'brag' about the dozen minnows they caught or the three big bass? When you find a good fishing spot, stay with it and run with it, catch even more of the same. Don't see winners too soon. If a market decline, washes a few up, get ready when the fishing gets good again. However, if the market goes crazy, take your 'fsh' and cash in.
Follow the fish... and in stock market terms... FOLLOW THE MONEY !
MOCKINGJAY - '...with risk comes reward '
Bought BA ... expected large buyback of stock this year.
Bought GILD.... also like CELG.
Timing off on TSLA. Sold but will repurchase at lower levels.
Feb 23 - Monday
Spoke to a person connected to CERN the other day... Asked him what the word was over at CERN regarding CERN stock as it has moved and climb up recently. He said the next thing would be the run up to another stock split. Unlike other stocks, CERN doesn't like it's stock share price getting too high. In the summer of 2011, CERN split when it's stock got into the 60's (it is now in the 70's), two years later, in the summer o 2013, CERN split just over 100. It is now another two years and although CERN is in the 70's, an announcement by CERN of a stock split is generating discussion. CERN however is a solid very well managed company, run by the legendary Neil Pattersen. CERN is worth owing regarding of any stock split. (Note: CERN was one of my 'top 2015 recommendations' - see blog of January 2, 2015).
Feb 21 - Saturday
On Friday, started a position in BA in my private account at 158.09. A number of analyst see a 25-30% gain potential in BA. Target is 200. Will consider to buy more next week and maybe open it to the public in MockingJay.
"Brokerage firm Sterne Agee estimates that Boeing will generate $23 billion in free cash flow from fiscal 2015 through fiscal 2017. From this, about $16 billion could be used for buying back shares after dividends, according to the firm. If all this did happen, then there would be 15% less shares outstanding. A reduction in shares outstanding would boost EPS and help investors to see more value from their shares."
Speaking of Mockingjay... the portfolio is now showing more than a $1,000 per week gain since inception at the beginning of year 2015.
get a leg up on the competition
DIS... Bought more Disney. Huge 2015 movie lineup, almost guaranteed to make a bundle of money. Coming out very soon is AVENGERS 2.. The first one was the third most largest grossing revenue producing film ever. Later in the year, the hugely awaited STAR WARS which already many predicted will be the highest volume selling movie of all time. In between there are a number of potential mega hits.. such as the first PIXAR movie in awhile. All PIXAR movies have been profitable. DIS has done extremely well with it's MARVEL superhero movies and a new one on the way in 2015 is ANT-MAN. Then a DIS science fiction flick with George Clooney titled TOMMORRLAND.
NFLX remains my biggest winner so far in 2015 with over a $1,000 gain.
FOOLISH ANALYSTS AND PROS ARE UNDERWATER ON THEIR AAPLE AAPL TARGETS
The good people at Fortune have published a report showing how poorly the 'experts' were in setting price targets on Apple (AAPL). I will summarized some of it here for your reading enjoyment.
By far the dumbest is from Adnaan Ahmad of the German bank Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. He’s been telling his clients to sell Apple since June 9, 2014. His last target was last September where he set the target at 60 per share. This was prior to Apple’s December quarter announcement — the most profitable in the history of capitalist ! I wonder if anyone is following his AAPL advice now!
Warren Buffet's favorite bank, Wells Fargo, had their top analyst, Maynard Um, boldly predict a target of 110. the 'renouned' Deusche Bank target came to a high of 110 as well. Pacific crest bolted out a 98 maximum price target. Morningstar somehow came in at a target of 120. BGE partners stated a target of 103.
That said, their are several who faithfully see better share prices for AAPL. Among them is Pipper Jeffery at 135. Barclays capital at 150. JP Morgan at 140. Credit Suisse at 140.
However, they are ALL too Low. Now that AAPL has broken to a new closing high, I fully expect the 'Pros' to come up with upgraded new targets. Of course, the one person, a man who become a billionaire trading in the stock market, and who has made money consistently in the market place, Carl Icahn, has an AAPL target of 212.
Hay hay hay.... hello MockingJay !
This year I changed my public portfolio stragey twofold using: (1) the strategy of following macro-trends and (2) the event-driven strategy (forseeing future events and seeing changes in a given company to make it better for shareholders (such as what an activist does)). This is generally what I am doing in my public portfolio for 2015 named 'MockingJay'.
It can be seen in the following examples.
1. Following the strong dollar trend (example UUP)
2. Following the fall of oil prices trend (examples DTO, SCO)
3. Following possible buyouts (event-driven example NFLX)
4. Following the REIT trend (SCHH)
5. Following the bio-tech trend (USA more lenient in approving new products, new advances in technology (BIB)
6. Following the airline profitability trend (managing seat miles, finding new ways of getting revenue (fees), and the major bonus of lower fuel costs) Examples LUV, AAL
7. Following AAPL - event-driven with new product cycle
My recommendations (entered Jan 1) : 'Eight Wonders of the stock/equity world for 2015'
1. Certain with CERN
You can be certain with Cerner !
Since the dark days of 2008, CERN has gained at a 37% average clip per year. For SIX strainght years CERN has gained in share price value. MockingJay will purchase CERN the first trading day of 2015 where you can watch it grow during the year in our MOCKINGJAY public portfolio.
2009 - Gained for year........ 114%
2010 - 14,91
2011 - 29.30
2012 - soared at a gain of 26.55
2013 - Surged upwards 49.82%
2014 - pale in comparison 18.59%
Buying a REIT is like buying real estate without the hassles and cost. If you think real estate is a good buy, buy a REIT. REITs need to pay 90% of their profits in dividends and go up in price when rates are low.
Starting anew in 2015 with the MockingJay portfolio showing our initial recommendations .
Catching FIRE portfolio
One year ago, I decided to make a stock portfolio public allowing one to see all my trades in the portfolio 24 hours a day, seven days a week. All trades, all closed trades for the year are available for viewing.
I set some very lofty goals. With an exposure risk that averages at any given time, $115,000 in the portfolio, I wanted to make a net profit gain of $40,000 which relates to a 35% gain for the year. THIS HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED. This is better than 99% of all professional hedge and institutional funds. I beat the pro fund managers in 2014 !
My plan was to make this portfolio available for one year. However, I currently have 10 active stocks in the portfolio. I now plan to allow it to be available for public viewing a little bit longer.
MOCKINGJAY - '...with risk comes reward '
The "Catching Fire" stock portfolio that has been on displayed publicly daily on this site since Nov 2013 will end it's public display here either at the end of the month or year-end. It has been highly successful. If it was part of a hedge fund, it would be among the top hedge funds in the country as the current net gain in the 30-35% range.
Don't dismay, I am replacing it with a brand new, more aggressive, highly speculative stock portfolio which will be displayed here and will be called MOCKINGJAY ! The purpose of MOCKINGJAY WILL BE TO SHOW AN ANNUAL NET GAIN GREATER THAN MY CURRENT 'CATCHING FIRE' PORTFOLIO. Our purpose is to generate greater profit than 35%. More on this later.