There is one indicator, one core piece of information, that is always up to date and always correct. That piece of information, is 'price'
eating the bears alive
Warning! This site not for the weak or meek or overly prudent
Last year, I set some very lofty goals. With an exposure risk that averaged at any given time $115,000 in my portfolio, I wanted to make a net profit gain of $40,000, which relates to a 35% gain for the year. THIS HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED. This was better than 99% of all professional hedge and institutional funds. I beat the pro fund managers in 2014 !
In 2015, the goal is to do even better ! ...and I am on track
The IRON MAN public portfolio: You're not in Kansas anymore !
What kind of investor are you? If you were long going into yesterday's session and sold, you might consider yourself a defensively weak and meek investor. With earning's season upon us and with the Fed unlikely to raise rates in Sept or even Dec, it was NOT a time to sell.
Bought a Mickey Mouse John Wind watch today from an antique mall ..to add to my collection. Mall dealer had everything off 50% off their booth.. saw this as good opportunity.
Some dates of notes on some of our stronger stocks in the iron-man portfolio....
SWKS... doubles dividend, ex date is Aug 4th
EBAY......On July 8, eBay shareholders received one share of PayPal common stock for every share of eBay common stock they own. The distribution is finalized on July 17, and on July 20 PayPal will begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker "PYPL."
NFLX...7-1 stock split occurs on July 14.
DIS ...... Announced dividends will now be semi-annual instead of annual. Raised dividend amount. Ex-dividend on July 01, 2015. A cash dividend payment of $0.66 per share to be paid on July 29, 2015. Shareholders who purchased DIS prior to the ex-dividend date are eligible for the cash dividend payment.
Son's birthday today. Wife made an excellent dish headed by rainbow trout. Watched 'the men who made America' on Netflix last night ..great inspiration. Have a good day!
Middle of summer and Oil crude continues to drop like a rock... and will continue to do so
This 'greek crisis' no different than any of the other ones.. only taking bit longer. In a few days,
the current crisis will be no more. The market will roar as it always does when a 'greek crisis' passes.
German euros are going to flood greek banks very soon. Germany has no other option but to allow
additional loans to Greece. It's a great time to be buying 'STOCKS ON SALE'. Get in when the getting is good.
In my auction/estate sale dealings, I came across a vintage bottle of a beer called Muehlebach. The beer was capped and unopen. I did some research and attempted to find it on the internet. I searched all the major auction houses like Ebay and could not find another one like it for sale. I searched the internet for history and pictures and could not locate an unopened bottle. I checked with all the local antique malls in the area with no avail. I am beginning to think I might have the only unopened bottle of Muehlebach beer left on this world. The beer was brewed by a small brewery in the Midwest and was discontinued in 1973. It very likely only sold in the areas surrounding Missouri and Kansas. I found out that the major hotel in Kansas City during that period was the Muehlebach hotel. A hotel that former president Harry Truman would stay in. That hotel started it's own beer, again named Muehlebach. I plan to contact this hotel and see if they happen to have a historical display of the beer. Currently my thinking, based on prices I've see for similar type rare bottle of beer, is that this one is worth $400.00.
Market closed today. Later I'll have an update on the portfolio goings-on and my latest garage/auction purchase exploit.
**bulletin** Bought more EBAY today ! Sold KMX. Money better invested in ebay. Some trades work out, some don'. That's the real world for you.
TSLA, one of our landmark core stocks, reports earnings above guidance.
EBAY, set to split off paypal in two weeks, indicates paypal buyng out xoom
SWKS - doubling it's dividend this quarter
NFLX - splitting 7 to 1
My iron-man portfolio continues to guide forward, not for the weak and meek!
DIS hits 115 mark.. as it continues to matriculate forward.
Got a limit order in to buy AAPL. Hope I get it.
IronMan portfolio stocks in the news
SWKS... Doubling the dividend, payable in August.
DIS.... Disney increased dividend by 15% and now will pay semi-annually instead of once a year. Next dividend payout July 29. DIS also announces weighing a billion dollar expansion in California in return for tax relief . ...and don't forget that Star Wars is right around the corner.
TSLA... The mega gigafactory slated to be ready operational in a year. It would not be surprising at all if TSLA share price at that time will be 400, maybe even 500 !
SBUX: Revenue up for twenty consecutive quarters, and each time a new all-time high. Earnings are also at all-time highs.
June 25 - after hours
Buying NFLX today is a 'no-brainer'. Huge odds in my favor that Netflix shares will go higher as it gets closer to the '7 to 1 split date'. I see at least the stock splitting at 700 or better. When I go on record like this I'm usually correct 85% of the time.
AMBA went up after I bought it today.
Planning on buying more NFLX as Icahn comments dampens NFLX..he pulled out and also other weaklings. His son, Brett, must be totally pissed!
Re-thought about it and couldn't see a reason not to own AMBA. Back in the game.
11:00am cst. Bought 8 more shares of NFLX.
Iron-man portfolio nearing the big 24 (24,000 gain)... Expecting to hit 25K real soon.
June 23 - afterhours
NETFLIX...one of my core 'wild bunch' stocks on my public portfolio , one that I purchased the first trading day of this year (fully documented) and never sold ...... announces a 7-1 stock split. The stock is fully matriculating in after-hours trading at the moment.
I might note that Carl Icahn, at one time, had NFLX as a major holding in his portfolio. He has since sold positions on it to where it is only 1.8% of his portfolio now. In fact, NFLX has gone up over 150% since his biggest sell on it in late 2013. I, on the other hand, made it a major stock recommendation at the beginning of this year and purchased NFLX on January 2 (first trading day of the year) and added to position during the year without selling any of it.
Brett Icahn (Carl's son) predicted NFLX to be at 60 million subscribers by this year. It was at 48 million last year and , guess what, it's at 60 million subscribers now. Brett sees it going to 90 million. Now comes BTIG Research that see NFLX at 120 million subscribers by 2020. It also puts a target price of Netflix (pre-split) at 950 !
Call 911 on the cybersecurity sector. Our eyeballs are focus on these three on-fire stocks: GIMO, AVG, and the torrid IMPV.
I really like GIMO and I have some strong minded company in a number of hedge funds buying this baby.
I own none at the moment but that might last very long !
I now own IMPV. Started position at my buy limit price of 67.
Bought more of the battery company TSLA.
Opened initial position with GIMO.....
This sector is for adult strong-minded willed investors. The meek and weakling traders need to stay away. Will you be late to the game... could be... are these stocks cheap.. no... again not for the meek.
Revenue is exploding and trending forward however... My opinion cut... they will continue to matriculate even higher. Why? ,, because companies cannot afford to get hack to the point of losing their business. This field is economy concern free. It's not depended on the economy being good.
FTNT : Fortinet has zero debt and about a billion in cash and investments in the bank. I do not own this stock..... yet.
PANW: Analyst price targets are now in the 200's. I agree. PANW is one of my holdings.
FEYE: A fairly recent ipo. If you're into ipo holdings, you need FEYE. Not one of my holdings.
CYBR : One of the media darlings. Stock is debt-free and has oodles of cash. One of my holdings.
HACK: ETF in the cybersecurity space.
VDSI, BLOX, JNPR are other stocks in this sector. None own.
As stock market talking-heads talk down June as a bad month to invest, the NASDAQ hits all time high.
SWKS... Announces 100% dividend increase (.25) from last quarter
AAPL.... Robbing the apple watch buyers blind. Selling extra watch bands for $49.00, cost is $2.00.
DIS........ Robbing park guests... charging $100.00 entry. Exploring virtual reality for video games.
AMZN.... amazing amazon working on mobile application for humans to deliver products to customers. UPS and FedEx stand by dumbfounded.
RCPT.... newest stock to our family up 9 points today amid buy-out rumors.
BIB.... biotech continues torrid pace...BIB up 5 points today
SBUX..Hits the big 54 after hitting the big 53 yesterday. Continues to see coffee related products at outrages prices which it's patrons are more than willing and happy to pay.
PANW.. This hot cybersecurity stock hit an all-time high yesterday..didn't back off today
TSLA Working with battery experts to try to bring down ion battery costs
DIS....... New Disney Pixar movie - Inside-Out - considered best Pixar movie ever made.......
Speaking of the 'Wild Bunch', added another stock to the portfolio, another 'wild bunch' type stock, RCPT. Wild Bunch stocks are volatile...make big moves up and down daily although longer term trend is upwards. A wild bunch could go down on the day I purchase it but longer term it's a winner.
The 'Wild Bunch stocks' consists of such members are Amazon, Netflix, Telsa and Ebay.
Since I own these stocks for my iron-man public portfolio, it makes more sense to relate what others are saying about them:
NFLX: Needham analyst Laura Martin, according to a report in MarketWatch.
Needham raised NFLX's price target to 780. The expectations is that NFLX would beat second-quarter revenue higher than analyst targets.
Additionally, there are expectations Netflix may generate a new revenue stream by selling advertising. The report said that would not be such a leap of logic, given other entertainment companies sell advertising.
"(Reuters) - the Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon Inc is developing a mobile application that would pay ordinary people, rather than courier companies, to deliver packages en route to other destinations"
---Per Bloomberg Business 'EBay Said to Plan Sale of Enterprise Unit in Time for Split'---
EBAY is considering the sale or initial public offering of its Enterprise unit.
EBay Inc. plans to select a buyer for its enterprise division by July 1,
A sale could value the unit between $1 billion and $1.5 billion.
"Tesla Motors is getting a cash injection in the form of a loan worth up to $750 million from a series of banks "
"Tesla targets a million of its electric vehicles on the road within the next five years.
The forecast came from Tesla's chief technical officer, JB Straubel, during a conference Monday, according to The Wall Street Journal. The electric carmaker expects its forthcoming mass-market vehicle—the $35,000 Model 3—to drive much of the growth.
Tesla plans to launch the new car series in 2017."
In addition, I continue to be emanorated with two stock sector.. the Chips and Cybersecurity sectors.
Chips are the products that make new innovative things work. Cybersecurity is what keeps them safe.
Closed two positions for profit today, AMBA and ALTR.
Bought new position, CYBR, a major stock in the cybersecurity sector.
Today, right before the session close, spells BUY BUY BUY !
Last year our public portfolio made a net profit of over 35%. Much of that gain can be attributed to buying when the market was down due to 'Greece finance concerns'. Today is another one of those wonderful days where it's highly advisable to take advantage of a market down day due to Greek concerns.
Bought a new stock for us today, AMBA. I totally believe in the Chip sector.
Taking a current look at our public iron-man portfolio (see below), 25 of the 27 active trading holdings show a profit. Of the two showing losses, one is only showing a $4.00 loss.
More importantly, the portfolio (stated at the beginning of year 2015) shows a net profit of over $20,000.
Our stocks in the news
NFLX: Netflix shareholders approved an increase in the company's share authorization, the precursor to a stock split. There's no indication yet for an exact ratio for the split.
As stated earlier, we favor the Cybersecurit
y sector containing such winners as PANW, FEYE, GIMO, CSCO and CYBR.
We continue to like the Chips sector with winners such as SWKS, AVGO, ALTR, IDTI, and ADI.
Some of you wondered why we sold REGN prior to the drug announcement. Now you know... as profit were locked in. Now that we have the results, re-bought REGN at unbelievable sale price.
Yesterday's purchases of adding to position on such stocks as AAPL, PANW, and SWKS looks good so far.
Big buying day today. Taking advantage of the 'June Gloom', for the first time since Feb I added to my position of APPLE. I also added to my positions on SWKS, PANW, and TSLA.
NFLX continues to outperform the market this year. I bought NFLX the first trading day of 2015 and have continued to hold it.
I continue to pare down, today closed VRX and REGN. Madness and the June Gloom.
June is not the best month to be long in the stock market. However, there is a market that thrives in June... that is the estate sale/ garage sale market. They're everywhere and all the competition provides one a great buying opportunity. Like any market, knowledge is key.
Started new position in KMX. Bought into 50 shrs.
As I pare down, sold UUP to day for profit.
How to Rob the Estate and Garage Sales market Blind, Part 1b.
On May 28 (see below), I started this series as stated above. Today I am going to add to the fun.
Another sure win are TI scientific calculators. These items are basically 'given away' at garage and estate sales. There are some things that are costly or 'dear' at estate sale. TI calculators usually are not one of them. These can usually be found at lower than market prices. The other day, it happen to be an auction, they were 'throw ins' on a pallet I bought. The nice thing is they come with the instruction manuals. I got TI-81 and TI-85 calculators basically as a throw in with manuals. These sell with the manual around $15.00 each on ebay and they do sell.
June 2, 2015
Paring down, sold BIB for about $2,000 profit, sold CERN for profit.
Sold 70 shrs SWKS for over $2,300 profit today. Still own 100 shrs SWKS.
Saw Mad Max Fury Road today. Awesome!
Media telling us market drops 80% of time in June (last ten runs). This could make it 9 out of 11. The 'market animal' is a creature of habit.
June 1, 2015
This stock added 1,500 new customers last quarter to an existing base of over 24,000.
It added more than 1,000 new subscribers to its WildFire service, which already had 5,000 subscribers, 200% year-over-year climb. Revenue climbed 55% to $234.2 million to $234.2 topping consensus estimates. The company forecasting fiscal fourth-quarter revenue in the range of $252 million to $256 million, above the consensus of $247.6 million. It's adjusted earnings grew more than 100% in its third quarter. The average customer "has increased their product spend with this company by 12% over the past year. It has purchased another company in the same space. There is huge corporate demand for it's services and products. The space is CyberSecurity and the company is Palo Alto Networks PANW. As global cyberattacks surged at major corporations in 2014, that enterprise will continue to spend on a good defense. I suggest you do your homework. I myself own this stock and expect it to target 200 per share.
Last Friday, we said the hottest space was in Chips and Cybersecurity. I bought ALTR, a no-brainer at the current price as it was almost a given that Intel was going to buy it. ALTR, AVGO, and SWKS are my favorites in this space (own all of them). You can spend all the time you want on fundamentals, technical, and sentiment you want but all you need to consider is if you think Mobile is going to continue to be prevalent in the future with on-going growth. If you do, AVGO and SWKS are two to consider. Do you own analysis, but I'm a believer in Chips.
Amazing "Amazon wants to be your retailer for everything. They started off with books and then they moved into pretty much every other category."
TSLA. "Tesla stock clearly has more upward volatility in ordinary day-to-day news. Long-side stock price game changers come frequently for this stock." In the last year... advances in the Model X, the Gigafactory dream and reality, upcoming Model 3, tesla enterprise batteries and home wall batteries. electric car recharging national network.... Be ready for more from Elon Musk and company my friend...
May 29, 2015
Last trading day for May. Yesterday we did get VRX but failed to get ACT at our limit price.
One of our 'Wild One's' AMZN on track today.
Following AVGO's purchase of Broadcom, now we see Intel going after Aterna......
Big haul yesterday in my estate/auction sale buying. more to follow....
In the meantime, our portfolio net profit busts over 20,000 YTD...
Jim Cramer thinks Cybersecurity and Organic food stocks are the hottest two spaces.
We disagree. The two hot spaces are Chips and Cybersecurity.
Who said 'Sell in May and go away'... decided to get into the deal game. Didn't know whether to buy INTC or ALTR. Ended up getting ALTR.
The Hunt continues......
Continuing to 'rob the estate/auction sales Blind'.... Yesterday, bought a Arthur Secunda art piece at a fraction of it's worth. ....Went on Ebay to check out selling prices and some are priced at $2,000. The frame I got the piece in is bad shape, so will replace it and re-mat it for about $100.00. I expect it will sell easily for $800-1500. I rate my estate/auction purchases as a bunt single to a home run. This one is a grand slam!
...also bough a pallet of assorted items including a lot of nascar including die-cast car models. Bought the pallet of items for less than $100... Low end selling value is about $500.00. (let's call this a home run)
....also bought a Stevie Ray Vaughn 'Texas flood' NM album for $10, ebay sold value $28.95 (let's call this a single).
May 28, 2015
Sold HPQ and took profit in GILD.
Have limit orders in to buy ACT and VRX.
Two spaces doing well these days: Chips and Cyber security.
Got VRX. Started position with 15 shares.
Word on the 'Street' is AAPL getting into the streaming TV business. Would be a guarantee winner for them.
How to Rob the Estate and Garage Sales market Blind, Part 1
From time to time, I'm going to relate on how to make basically guarantee profits on buying items at garage, flea markets, and estate sales and re-selling those items for practically guarantee profits.
I like the 'hunt' involved in finding gems and regular items at estate/garage sales. Even better, there is the almost guaranteed winning return when those items are sold.
Today, I'm going to relate on a couple of items that are sure 'wins'. You're not going to get rich but it is always fun to find something dirt cheap and re-sell it for profit. Again, this is mostly a fun thing, hunting down something and getting more for it somewhere else.....
Cups and Mugs.
Electronic hand-held or console video games.
Almost all of these are undervalued at estate/garage sales. Make sure they work however. Having some batteries in your car to check out is always helpful. These items are easy to sell and in demand (see ebay). I once bought a Pac-Man hand-held game for $3.00 at an estate sale. It sells in the $85.00 range. I bought an electronic aladdin video game for $2.00 this week. It has sold on ebay lately in the $10.00-12.00 range. If you're able to get the box or carton it came in, that makes it even worth more.
About once a week, I plan on providing more estate/garage sale 'secrets'. Stay tuned. I'll keep this posted for about a week and then it will be deleted and a new article will be added. So tune in regularly.
One poor fool on another site didn't believe my garage sale secrets regarding starbuck mugs. All one need to do is goto Ebay auctions today and check out sold Starbuck mugs. You'll see some sold for $2,000!
Did a first-in last-out sell of CERN.
Bought amazing AMZN and REGN.
May be it's time to get REGN
Pared down today. Sold three winners... MA, WWAV, UA. BIB split two for one.
The 'Wild Ones', TSLA, NFLX, and amazing AMZN continue to be loved.....
TSLA going big time into the battery business
AAPL selling even more phones
NFLX going big time into China and 400 million potential subscribers
AMZN going big time into everything!
Pity the poor fools who have shorted or bought Puts on Netflix, my top winner for 2015!
Maryland passes law allowing TSLA to sell directly. TSLA works on fixing China. Those who purchased TSLA 240 puts for expiration this week are going to get spanked!
AAPL pushing 127 in the early go today.
Tesla keeps on truckin .. could it someday be bigger than APPLE ?
CERN Becomes yet another easy play as the pattern of good stocks dropping on reporting good earnings continue. Stock is down today even through two major analysts have upgraded their targets to 80 per share and corner reported fab earnings... Just like UA is doing now. ....going back up after going down last week after reporting good earnings...likewise will Cerner.
I expect Cerberus to be down today and also tomorrow before it starts a climb forward,
TSLA. AAPL dis. All at attractive buy pricing
dis continues upward movement
April 27 - Monday
Apple: Increases dividend
Apple: Increases share buybacks
Apple: Product sells are red hot in China
Apple: Apple Watch exceeding supply
Apple: Cash horde hits all time high
April 24 left overs
Apple watch day...TSLA announcement day comes April 30. Stud continues to kick it with excellent earnings. ...and away we go....
On estate sale front got a lladro figure and two hummels for less than 30.00....if sold at lowest sale price on Ebay ....worth 185.00
April 23 left overs
Picked up vintage wood tumbling toy blocks at an estate sale today for 75 cents... current internet value is $100
All those 'expert' analysts claiming Apple did wrong with the Apple Watch are now in hiding with their boogy error predictions. yet again I am right.
As expected, Under Armour UA coming back... as I said it would.
CERN (Cerner)...One of our top holdings and recommendations for 2015 makes the IBD big 20 Cap.
DIS (Disney), another of our 2015 recommendations continues to climb the mountain feeling no pain.
NETFLIX.. an original holding in our portfolio continues to lead the way.
TSLA... bought this yesterday, technical difficulties didn't allow me to post it to portfolio on google drive until today. Sorry about that.
HD.. Closed home depot today for better utilization of funds. There's a number of other stocks on watchlist that I plan to purchase this month.
PANW.. Currently have a limit order to buy.
Bought TSLA today.
Mom's birthday is today. Back from Florida. Actually like the Kennedy Space Center.
The 'fools' are selling UA today. UA is at one of my 'no lose' conditions today. When a stock reports good earnings, with positive future guidance, and the stock drops, it's a no-brainer buy. UA down due to revenue less than expected. The more important thing is positive future guidance and a plus is that it did better than expected on earnings. Again a no-brainer BUY!
Weather wet Florida. In the meantime, Apple continues to sell millions of iphones.
Out in Florida this week. Sorry, forgot to update the portfolio with the 2/1 sbux split It is now updated.
Got some vintage railroad materials at the auction last night. Cost me $15.00 for a box valued on the low end of $500 and most likely will result in 1,000-1500 when all said and done. Normally I hold items purchased for awhile before reselling.
Also continuing to buy vinyl LP's, new and old. The Stout 'Guardians of the Galaxy' LP with handbill I got for $90 now selling on amazon for 199 and recent sells on ebay at 125.00. Expect this LP to be around $200-250 in a year when Guardians of the Galaxy II comes out.
Biotech continues to surge.
As I've saying all along, contrary to analyst's and media reports, is that the Apple Watch will be a success and already denoted by the company as demand exceeding supply.
A lot going on today as am off work today... going to an estate sale this morning and auction tonight. In between will do a planned photo shoot for an historic site in the area that I live in.
Bought Rolling Stone concert tickets today. Been saying for the last few years it'll be their last tour... hasn't happen yet...told they're still good... it'll be a party out there.
Got a Tyler Stout 'Guardians of the Galaxy' limited edition LP. Sold out on his website. Cost me around $90.. in one week price on Amazon is 199.00 and best price with a hand bill on ebay is around $125.00.
My son came back from Mexico City the other day... was there for about 3 weeks...says it like another planet (in a nice way). Everything cheap but must bargain, if you speak English price goes up. Transportation is cheap.
The stock media still scared shitless of the Apple Watch. I've been saying all along it's a winner... expect demand to be greater than supply around Christmas. First edition 2015 gold watches will go well... people buying if for ego reasons and as a collectible.
Remember this watch will be sold around the world... other countries have more respect for buying gold products.
April 7 - Tues
Bought WWAV, 100 shares today.
DIS - bought more DIS stock today....
Disney is investing $250 million into fantasy sports business DraftKings. This deal values the startup site at $900 million dollars.
DraftKings will spend over $500 million in advertising on ESPN.
It's like Disney is using DraftKings as a middleman to give money to ESPN.
(DIS owns ESPN).
April 3 - Friday
My ongoing photography continues to take up much of my time. I have already received requests from others on one of my photos, a landmark building that centered the old auto parts and repair company call 'Western Auto'. Below is a picture of it.
Mar 23 - Monday
Jim Cramer's followers got suckered in o
n his rant last Friday on 'ringing the register' on biotech. Just watch how well biotech recovers in the next few days.
Apple comes back today after manipulative option move at close on Friday.
Sorry, I am not a daytrader. No action today.
Mar 22 Sunday
REGN.. is the No 1 nasdaq stock in total returns the last 10 years. It continues to move forward this year with a new class of chloestel medication superior to the statins available now. Expect approval this year.
BIIB... another biotech stock with a hot drug. This stock went up 9 points Friday. It's not done. If continue trials are promising with Alzheimer as the initial trials, the stock could triple in price. While Jim Crammer is telling you to unload REGN and BIIB, I'm recommending these stocks to go even higher.
As of Friday, REGN is at 485.85 and BII
B ended up at 472.15.
AAPL.. another stock in the top ten of total returns the last ten years. Of all those stocks, it has the lowest Forward P/E ratio and is still considered undervalued. AAPL ended Friday at 125.95.
HD All the stars are aligned right for Home Depot. The CEO is telling us also they are hitting on all cylinders. Buy buy buy. HD ended Friday at 117.52
SWKS... can't go wrong... selling to all the smart phone makers...doesn't matter which phones sell or drop. They got the market. SWKS ended up at 102.04.
SBUX.. continues to hit new highs... One of best run companies on the planet with ongoing innovations and contnued growth in China. Probaby has best CEO. SBUX ended at 97.45
Some are calling the latest Biotech boom similar to the dot-com boom bust of 2000. They are wrong of course. Biotech, using new technologies and discoveries, are coming up with miracle drugs that actually perform and will provide profits for years to come. ...Real and great progress with heart disease, cancer, alzheimers, viruses are on the way.
Mar 19 - Thursday
SBUX starbucks hitting new highs. SWKS continues to perform. BIB can't quit. Bought more of all three today!
BIOTECH ON FIRE.... Yet another UP day for my portfolio in a down market day!
Mar 18 - Wednesday
APPLE joins the Dow Jones Industrial averages after today's session.
Like APPLE did with the music indus
try...changing it and transforming it with iTunes... now APPLE with transform the way with TV viewing. The current pay-TV model remains antiquated, expensive, over-bundled and in dire need of major changes. Apple likely will announce a bundle of TV networks in June to be launch in September to coincide with the start of the fall TV season.
APPLE continues to see success (abeit under the radar) with Apple Pay. Once the new Apps and revolutionary payment and smart wallet technology continues, no one will need to carry credit and debit cards.
Mar 16 - Monday
APPLE TV WITH 25 CHANNELS COMING ONLINE.
ALSO APPLE CLEARED OF INFRINGING LAWSUIT
AAPL as STATED EARLIER .. JOINING THE ALMIGHTY DOW
AAPL going after Android. .. get reward card for switching to apple.
AAPL bringing out the APPLE WA
TCH next month. The Media is dead wrong about the watch, it will be a huge hit and many people will buy the Gold Watch.
AAPL very likely will INCREASE the dividend by next reporting period and also INCREASE the Stock Buyout amounts !
and , in my opinion, this is only the beginning .................!
Hay hay hay.... hello MockingJay !
Mar - Friday the 13th
Want to thank all our friends over at Stock Twits for coming here and viewing. Our viewership is up. Again thank you.
As stated yesterday, don't be fooled thinking it's the beginning of a bear market. Those who got suckered in earlier this week are now feeling the heat.
I still have faith in AVGO, one of the few stocks not performing in our portfolio.
The institutions don't understand Apple (AAPL). I expect the stock to hit 150 by the end of April, 2015. That will be a 25 point jump. Other than the Apple Watch details, one needs to remember the upgrade in the Mac PC, the HBO deal, the bigger iPad coming later in the year. I also expect an increase in the stock dividend to be announced this year as well as an upgrade in the stock buyback program. I, for one, expect the Apple Watch to be a hit. I also expect the 10k to 17k gold watch to sell. Remember, people will be buying this mainly for two reasons. One, it will be likely an collectible item, being the first Apple Watch, dated 2015 and Second, people will buy for ego reasons, something to show off... the same reason people buy expensive automobiles and expensive coffee at starbucks.
SWKS.. Already owed this in a private account. Bought 50 shares for my public ironman portfolio account.
As I said yesterday, those poor weaklings who sold out so soon....my my !
How can you know if it's a bear market? It's tough. Professionals are terrible forecasting a bear market. The media worse! If folks are predicting a bear market, know you should own stocks. Corrections are different.. stocks drop suddenly and fast and are designed to scare the pants off you. Corrections happen during a year. Don't be fooled. Real bear markets start slow and calm. Stocks drop a little month-to-month but nothing dramatic. Don't get suckered into unloading your positions because of a small quick correction.
Have interest in buying more SBUX.
Big news regarding Apple. Dow Jones Industrial Average replaces ATT with Apple effective March 18.
The AAPL march continues.................
money consistently in the market place, Carl Icahn, has an AAPL target of 212.
As stated earlier, my Iron-Man portfolio will be more aggressive and speculative using profits on buying new stocks and equities. Today I purchased shares in AVGO. AVGO, a chipmaker, announced an dividend effective with anyone holding the Mar on Mar 20th for payment Mar 31.
The amateurs and market weaklings are thinking the market is 'too high' and backing off their longs. The adult smart money continues however to come into the market.
Bought 70 shares UA today.
Mark Cuban continues to think Netflix will be bought out. I continue to hold my best performer in the Iron-Man/MockingJay portfolio (see below).
Apple sold more smart phones than everyone last quarter. Morgan Stanley up'd their target price on AAPL from 130 to 160. All of them getting close to Carl Icahn's 216 target. Only a few more days before AAPL provides details of the Apple Watch.
Starbucks. Pipper Jefferies up's target to 108. SBUX at 94 and gunning for the 100th mark.
I'm gonna get UA and BA into Iron-Man soon.
Feb 28-Mar 2
My YTD report on the 2015 recommendations.
After two full months, let's take a look at how my 2015 recommendations have performed. These recommendations were made Jan 1 and Jan 2 of 2015.
1. The almighty DOLLAR. Using etf index UUP as the measure, the dollar is up 5.23% since the beginning of the year.
2. CERNER. I noted on Jan 2 that you can be certain with CERN. CERN is up 11.44% YTD.
3. Airline Stocks. There are transportation indexes but not an airline index. Some airlines have done well, some not. Result is mixed.
4. Netflix (NFLX). I bought and recommended buying NFLX on Jan 2, the first trading day of the year. It has been my best recommendation so far. NFLX is up a whopping 39.02% since the beginning of the year !
5. Apple (AAPL). I bought and recommended buying AAPL on Jan 2, the first trading day of the year. AAPL is up 16.36% since the beginning of the year !
6. Disney (DIS). I said on Jan 2 that ' DIS, the top media company on earth owns a number of golden nuggets". DIS stock is up 10.5% YTD.
7. Starbucks (SBUX). I said "What can you say about a CEO that smells not only money in coffee beans but takes the top margins of his products. No price is too high for starbuck products." SBUX is up 13.94% YTD.
8. REITs. I said "
Buying a REIT is like buying real estate without the hassles and cost. If you think real estate is a good buy, buy a REIT". Using SCHH as a gauge, it is 3.13% YTD.
9. Biotech stocks. Using the top four Biotech ETF's, the range is 10.94% up to 22.5% up for the year. Biotech has done very well.
10. Short Oil. I said short Oil until someone blinks. The USA blinked. I said to use DTO and SCO as a gauge. Although Oil has bump up from it's lows, the two etf's I noted are still up for the year. DTO is up 21.5% for the year, SCO is up .051% for the year.
As you can see, the facts show everyone of our recommendations at this point is a winner. That said, it's time to make some changes. I am no longer advocating shorting oil as the USA has blinked. Oil still could go down but I am no longer willing to risk.
I am also no longer recommending buying the Dollar. It should continue to get stronger as the FED is likely to raise rates but it's time to move on to other plays. I am no longer recommending REITs although pending housing starts are the highest it's been in 18 months. Again time to move on. Airline stocks likely have hit a wall. I am no longer recommending Airline stocks although several of the airlines could likely continue to climb.
I do continue to like AAPL(apple), NFLX (Netflix), CERN (Cerner), SBUX (Starbucks), DIS (Disney), Biotechs
In the coming days, I will be adding new recommendations. Also the MOCKINGJAY portfolio started on Jan 1 is being changed. Last year the Catching Fire portfolio was based for the most part on Growth and Momentum. Mockingjay is mostly based on Trends and Special Situations. I will combine both concepts together and add additional risk and speculations to enhance growth. With the profits made, I am willing to take on more risk for hopefully better reward. MockingJay will soon morph into the IRON MAN portfolio - where only winners need apply - where only the strong survive. The same portfolio but new added stocks might be more speculative.
Last day of the trading month and I promised my old site an update of my MockingJay portfolio would be provided on their site. However, after attempting to go to the site, it appears to have gone defunct. I will provide an YTD update on here this weekend.
MockingJay: Only winners need apply. Time to knock off more weaklings from the portfolio, gone are AON and BA. Portfolio continues to show a profit over $8,000 YTD !
Feb 25 - Load of losers yet a winning portfolio
If one at first glance takes a look below at the MockingJay portfolio, one will see a large number of losing picks, in fact all closed picks except one is a loser.... yet the portfolio is up over $8,000 YTD which averages over $1,000 per week gain for the year!
How can that be?
At the onset, I indicated that I was all about Portfolio Management and not individual stock picks. I am not in a popularity contest or game to see how many stock picks come out right. I am however interested in overall PROFIT. Managing the overall portfolio is more important than game playing with seeing how many stock picks one gets right. I want my money in stocks which will improve the overall portfolio and couldn't care less about 'hoping' a losing stock goes back to even to satisfy an ego.
Last year, my Catching Fire portfolio did over 35% net gain for the year. That public portfolio was based primarily on growth and momentum. I indicated that this year, my current public available for viewing portfolio, is more about following Trends and Special situations. I started this portfolio at the beginning of the year and named it MockingJay.
I want the portfolio loaded with winners... weeding out the losers. This is FOLLOWING THE MONEY !
ONE NEEDS TO BE ON THE LAKE WHEN THE FISH ARE FEEDING !
The best traders are usually only 60% right, just make the winners big ones. When fishing, does one 'brag' about the dozen minnows they caught or the three big bass? When you find a good fishing spot, stay with it and run with it, catch even more of the same. Don't see winners too soon. If a market decline, washes a few up, get ready when the fishing gets good again. However, if the market goes crazy, take your 'fsh' and cash in.
Follow the fish... and in stock market terms... FOLLOW THE MONEY !
MOCKINGJAY - '...with risk comes reward '
Bought BA ... expected large buyback of stock this year.
Bought GILD.... also like CELG.
Timing off on TSLA. Sold but will repurchase at lower levels.
Feb 23 - Monday
Spoke to a person connected to CERN the other day... Asked him what the word was over at CERN regarding CERN stock as it has moved and climb up recently. He said the next thing would be the run up to another stock split. Unlike other stocks, CERN doesn't like it's stock share price getting too high. In the summer of 2011, CERN split when it's stock got into the 60's (it is now in the 70's), two years later, in the summer o 2013, CERN split just over 100. It is now another two years and although CERN is in the 70's, an announcement by CERN of a stock split is generating discussion. CERN however is a solid very well managed company, run by the legendary Neil Pattersen. CERN is worth owing regarding of any stock split. (Note: CERN was one of my 'top 2015 recommendations' - see blog of January 2, 2015).
Feb 21 - Saturday
On Friday, started a position in BA in my private account at 158.09. A number of analyst see a 25-30% gain potential in BA. Target is 200. Will consider to buy more next week and maybe open it to the public in MockingJay.
"Brokerage firm Sterne Agee estimates that Boeing will generate $23 billion in free cash flow from fiscal 2015 through fiscal 2017. From this, about $16 billion could be used for buying back shares after dividends, according to the firm. If all this did happen, then there would be 15% less shares outstanding. A reduction in shares outstanding would boost EPS and help investors to see more value from their shares."
Speaking of Mockingjay... the portfolio is now showing more than a $1,000 per week gain since inception at the beginning of year 2015.
get a leg up on the competition
DIS... Bought more Disney. Huge 2015 movie lineup, almost guaranteed to make a bundle of money. Coming out very soon is AVENGERS 2.. The first one was the third most largest grossing revenue producing film ever. Later in the year, the hugely awaited STAR WARS which already many predicted will be the highest volume selling movie of all time. In between there are a number of potential mega hits.. such as the first PIXAR movie in awhile. All PIXAR movies have been profitable. DIS has done extremely well with it's MARVEL superhero movies and a new one on the way in 2015 is ANT-MAN. Then a DIS science fiction flick with George Clooney titled TOMMORRLAND.
FOOLISH ANALYSTS AND PROS ARE UNDERWATER ON THEIR AAPLE AAPL TARGETS
The good people at Fortune have published a report showing how poorly the 'experts' were in setting price targets on Apple (AAPL). I will summarized some of it here for your reading enjoyment.
By far the dumbest is from Adnaan Ahmad of the German bank Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. He’s been telling his clients to sell Apple since June 9, 2014. His last target was last September where he set the target at 60 per share. This was prior to Apple’s December quarter announcement — the most profitable in the history of capitalist ! I wonder if anyone is following his AAPL advice now!
Warren Buffet's favorite bank, Wells Fargo, had their top analyst, Maynard Um, boldly predict a target of 110. the 'renouned' Deusche Bank target came to a high of 110 as well. Pacific crest bolted out a 98 maximum price target. Morningstar somehow came in at a target of 120. BGE partners stated a target of 103.
That said, their are several who faithfully see better share prices for AAPL. Among them is Pipper Jeffery at 135. Barclays capital at 150. JP Morgan at 140. Credit Suisse at 140.
However, they are ALL too Low. Now that AAPL has broken to a new closing high, I fully expect the 'Pros' to come up with upgraded new targets. Of course, the one person, a man who become a billionaire trading in the stock market, and who has made money consistently in the market place, Carl Icahn, has an AAPL target of 212.
Hay hay hay.... hello MockingJay !
This year I changed my public portfolio stragey twofold using: (1) the strategy of following macro-trends and (2) the event-driven strategy (forseeing future events and seeing changes in a given company to make it better for shareholders (such as what an activist does)). This is generally what I am doing in my public portfolio for 2015 named 'MockingJay'.
It can be seen in the following examples.
1. Following the strong dollar trend (example UUP)
2. Following the fall of oil prices trend (examples DTO, SCO)
3. Following possible buyouts (event-driven example NFLX)
4. Following the REIT trend (SCHH)
5. Following the bio-tech trend (USA more lenient in approving new products, new advances in technology (BIB)
6. Following the airline profitability trend (managing seat miles, finding new ways of getting revenue (fees), and the major bonus of lower fuel costs) Examples LUV, AAL
7. Following AAPL - event-driven with new product cycle
My recommendations (entered Jan 1) : 'Eight Wonders of the stock/equity world for 2015'
1. Certain with CERN
You can be certain with Cerner !
Since the dark days of 2008, CERN has gained at a 37% average clip per year. For SIX strainght years CERN has gained in share price value. MockingJay will purchase CERN the first trading day of 2015 where you can watch it grow during the year in our MOCKINGJAY public portfolio.
2009 - Gained for year........ 114%
2010 - 14,91
2011 - 29.30
2012 - soared at a gain of 26.55
2013 - Surged upwards 49.82%
2014 - pale in comparison 18.59%
2. SHORT OIL
Although the talkin head market analysts in the media and on the internet have told you that a floor has been hit on OIL, I, and mostly likely, I alone, have told you that OIL prices will continue to drop. They will drop unti someone blinks.. and so far no one is blinking on reducing OIL. In fact, the almighty USA will INCREASE OIL PRODUCTION in 2015.
There's a number of ways to play the oil price drop. Buy inverse oil ETF such as DTO or SCO. In two trading days, I am up over $1,300 net gain in my purchase of SCO on Jan 2 (see public MockingJay portfolio).
3. The Almighty Dollar
The USA economy gained in 2014 and will gain again in full force due to a number of factors, one being the low cost of Oil will allow those corporations that have high fuel costs to make a killing (think airlines). The dollar currency is gaining against the failed Russian ruble and the weak EURO. There's a number of ways to play the STRENGTH OF THE DOLLAR , one way is to buy index funds or etf related to the gain of the dollar. I like UUP.
4. AIRLINE STOCKS
Even if the price of Oil was at $100 per barrel instead of low 50's, the airlines are flying high in profit earnings... as they learned to stop competing among themselves and to rob the customer blind, charging them for every little bitty thing. Take your pick of airline stocks, buy a couple. winner winner chicken dinner!
The top media company on earth owns a number of golden nuggets, such as the Marvel franchise, EPSN, Pixel, and now the STAR WAR franchise. The Disney Star Wars movie out later in 2015 now expected to be the top grossing movie OF ALL TIME !
6. STARBUCKS - The smell of money
What can you say about a CEO that smells not only money in coffee beans but takes the top margins of his products. No price is too high for starbuck products. They expanding into other products such as liquor, another massive high margin product. They're selling overpriced pastries... and the customer love it as they get robbed blind by the price. Buy the stock and enjoy the smell of money!
7. BIO tech stock
The major BIO tech stocks are making oodles of money as there were more government approvals of new products in 2014 than ever before. The best way to play BIO's is to do the 'Run and Up'. As new products get tested and before it is announced if it got approval or before the earnings report, sell the stock but BUY THE RUNUP!
Buying a REIT is like buying real estate without the hassles and cost. If you think real estate is a good buy, buy a REIT. REITs need to pay 90% of their profits in dividends and go up in price when rates are low.
Starting anew in 2015 with the MockingJay portfolio showing our initial recommendations .
Catching FIRE portfolio
One year ago, I decided to make a stock portfolio public allowing one to see all my trades in the portfolio 24 hours a day, seven days a week. All trades, all closed trades for the year are available for viewing.
I set some very lofty goals. With an exposure risk that averages at any given time, $115,000 in the portfolio, I wanted to make a net profit gain of $40,000 which relates to a 35% gain for the year. THIS HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED. This is better than 99% of all professional hedge and institutional funds. I beat the pro fund managers in 2014 !
My plan was to make this portfolio available for one year. However, I currently have 10 active stocks in the portfolio. I now plan to allow it to be available for public viewing a little bit longer.
MOCKINGJAY - '...with risk comes reward '
The "Catching Fire" stock portfolio that has been on displayed publicly daily on this site since Nov 2013 will end it's public display here either at the end of the month or year-end. It has been highly successful. If it was part of a hedge fund, it would be among the top hedge funds in the country as the current net gain in the 30-35% range.
Don't dismay, I am replacing it with a brand new, more aggressive, highly speculative stock portfolio which will be displayed here and will be called MOCKINGJAY ! The purpose of MOCKINGJAY WILL BE TO SHOW AN ANNUAL NET GAIN GREATER THAN MY CURRENT 'CATCHING